The Niger Coup is a very big concern to Nigeria not just because of a potential spiral of political dynamics but also because of the economic impact of the Nigeria/Niger relationship and the potential consequences of the Niger Coup, which has pushed the two sister nations to a faceoff in recent times. In the scope of things, the relationship between Nigeria and Niger is like those between the United States and Canada; however, the recent Niger Coup has disrupted the rich history of cordial relationship between the two West African countries.
The Niger coup is not just a diplomatic fiasco but also an economic quagmire that has left the two formally friendly countries in utmost suspicion of one another; this faceoff has far-reaching economic implications for both Nations. The economic impact, while taking a slower pace at destructive manifestation, has not been any less dangerous as both Nations, especially the country of Niger and bordering Nigerian communities stare at the reality of the negative impact of the situation as borders remain closed and other measures taken by the Nigerian state and her ECOWAS counterpart bites harder on both Nations as Niger happens to be Nigeria’s biggest land border.
The rather pragmatic response by the Nigerian government led by President Bola Tinubu in the earlier days of the coup rather than douse the situation escalated it as the distrust level rose, and so did diplomatic collapse. The deterrent actions by Nigeria and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and other prominent Nation members of the global communities have not changed the position of the Niger coup leaders. But why is the Niger Coup so important to Nigeria? Why is the coup so concerning to the international community? There have been several other coups in West Africa recently; why didn’t these interested parties show as much seriousness as being shown today regarding Niger in Burkina Faso and Mali?
The seriousness of Niger is connected to the following economic and strategic implications of the Niger Coup to the Nigerian state, ECOWAS and the West. Then, one may ask, what are these economic implications?
Billions of Dollar Gas Pipeline Running to Europe at Stake
One significant implication of the Niger coup is the question of continuing the gas pipeline from Nigeria to Europe. Since the pipeline is proposed to run through the country of Niger, the project’s continuation may be stalled should the diplomatic collapse between Nigeria and Niger continue.
Uranium For France
Among other resources France has been getting cheaply from Niger, uranium seems the most significant. Niger, while being landlocked and poor, is relatively blessed with an abundance of mineral resources; uranium is one of these resources; however, despite these mineral resources, Niger remains one of the poorest countries in the world. Still, France being Niger’s colonial master, maintained a strong presence in the country until recently as the Coupists took over power and have been promoting anti-France sentiments.
France will not just sit and allow the Niger coup plotters to take away these resources access; uranium is of high importance to France both as an ingredient for Nuclear energy generation or as an ingredient for nuclear weapons; whichever way, Niger resources are very crucial to France and other global powers.
Global Energy Price and a Weapon in Russia’s Arsenal
The global Energy market is one that Russia is a crucial player; when Russia is at war with nearly all of Europe and its NATO alliance, it becomes understandable that Russia would take advantage of the situation in Niger for its economic and strategic survival.
Russia remains one of the largest global suppliers of natural gas to Europe; as such, using Niger to cut off a potential alternative supply from Africa while starving off the uranium supply seems like a strategic killing of two birds with one stone. By taking Niger, Russia limits uranium supply and, at the same time, stalls the continuation of the gas pipeline project from Nigeria to Europe.
Livestock and Food Supply Chain to and from Nigeria Under Threat
A great bulk of Nigerian livestock and food supply comes from Niger, and in a similar pattern, food, livestock and other materials are also sent from Nigeria. The Niger coup has disrupted demand and supply chain as borders between the two countries remain closed. Apart from the export of minerals, Niger is chiefly an agricultural-dependent country. Nigeria was one of the biggest consumers of Niger’s agricultural products, especially castles.
The Niger chaos disrupted this chain of supply which has made things way more costly in Nigeria and possibly in Niger as well; although the Niger situation is not entirely to blame for the high cost of food and animal protein in Nigeria, it did significantly impact the Nigerian food and livestock market. This has skyrocketed the cost of living in Nigeria; the current high cost of living in Nigeria was also chiefly caused by the removal of the petrol subsidy and its impact; however, the disruption of the relationship with Niger also made the situation way more terrible.
On the side of Niger, the people are also suffering different implications of the actions of the Niger Coup leaders; it is harder now than before to understand the real situation of things in Niger as the coup leaders maintain a state of high-level confidentiality and secrecy.
Emerging Economic and Strategic Block
Another implication of the Niger coup is the emergence of another economic block within the environs of West Africa; this new strategic and economic block aims to unite the different military governments in the region. With the unity of the military government within the West African neighborhood, not only would they become matching opposition to the ECOWAS, but they could also prove a formidable strategic and economic rival. A new belt of military government is emerging across West Africa and nearby; the similar fundamental among these military governments is creating a wave of the new alliance.
The message of hope they preach, presenting themselves as a beam of light that would save Africa from Western imperialism, sounds fascinating enough, but is it worth taking this message of hope at its face value as of today? The emergence of this new strategic and economic chain comes with it a disruptive effect; however, we don’t know how it would eventually play out, especially as other countries in the neighborhood, especially those of ECOWAS, do not approve of this method of liberation irrespective of its fancy promises of strategic and economic emancipation, ECOWAS don’t seem to be buying their message of liberation through holding elected leaders in captivity and at gunpoint.
Global Economic Implication of the Niger Coup
Niger may be a poor West African country which shouldn’t matter in the scheme of things; however, the current situation in Niger and its global attention have shown that a country can still be extremely poor and relevant. Having noted the two strategic resources that Europe desperately needs, which Niger has some capacity for disruption of supply has placed the country in a vital point of attention. First is Niger’s uranium, and second is Nigerian gas intended to be piped through Niger.
Although the pumping of Nigerian gas may not have an instant impact as the gas pipelines had not yet been functional, the situation of Niger uranium supply cut can increase the price of uranium in the international market. This situation mostly applies to uranium because since the Nigeria/Europe gas pipeline has not started working yet, its impact on the global gas market is mostly speculative. Nigeria, having not been a crucial gas supplier to Europe, would not really impact gas prices for the time being, but this situation may not apply to Niger and her uranium because Niger has been an active global uranium supplier.
Conclusion
It is hard to tell who would be more impacted by the Niger coup, whether Nigeria, France, Europe, NATO or Niger itself, but it is evident that Niger remains Nigeria’s largest land border and one of Niger’s biggest partners. Other interested parties in the situation also see Nigeria as a crucial player and the major point of consideration in the situation of resolving the Niger crisis.
Despite the options being explored, the current fiasco has created an economic turmoil with far-reaching implications in different sectors. I could have said the winner would be Russia, but then I noticed Russia’s turmoil in Ukraine. I could have said that the winner would be Niger, and then I remember what hardship the masses are going through. Like all jeopardy of this magnitude, there’s never a clear winner or loser; however, I hope in the case of the Niger coup that the gain surpasses the loss in the end.