The word “homelessness” is something more common in Western countries but homelessness in Nigeria is becoming an emerging trend. The current rise in rent cost is removing so many from appropriate shelter. While “homelessness” is more commonly used in Western countries, the term seems to be gradually sinking into the Nigerian lexicon as shelter rent price hike becomes a reality.

The current hardship in Nigeria is impacting every segment of the country. The cost of accommodation is not left out. This is becoming even more concerning as the country may face another dimension of challenges as hardship bites harder.

Compared to other countries, accommodation used to be very affordable but until lately especially since the economic downturn of the the current administration, housing is now emerging as an extraordinary luxury. Housing has always been a luxury in every aspect of most societies but the current situation in Nigeria is unprecedented. Although the whole trends seem like a real estate bubble; however, the high cost of every other item has been sustained for over a year now; it does seem like the current rising accommodation cost in Nigeria isn’t a bubble.

Housing is an essential aspect of human society, the danger of the rising homelessness in Nigeria is that other elements of the society have not been functioning properly. With high insecurity, and different dimensions of threats to life and properties including burglary and rituals, a rise in homelessness could make citizens more vulnerable to these vices.

The current real estate price hike has had high financial impacts on families. With Nigeria’s tenancy and house rent model, the major impact of the real estate price hike will be felt from January 2025 to July 2025.

Why the Real Impact of the Rising Accommodation Cost Will be Felt From January 2025 thereby leading to Likely Rise of Homelessness in Nigeria.

Most Nigerian landlords operate a 1-year tenancy model, rents are mostly paid annually in Nigeria as opposed to a weekly or monthly rent payment model. Most Nigerians love to move into a new house, new neighborhood new city, etc., by January. Usually, Nigerians moving out of a neighborhood stay out the previous year in their former environment possibly spending Christmas in such former environment and then moving by January.

Now with the current economic situation most rent paid by January 2024 will be expiring around January 2025. This will create real concern as the cost of living has risen to an all-time high, there’s no solution in sight, and salaries so far have not been improved.

Despite the agitations by workers, there had been a deadlock on moves to introduce an improved salary package. Even the new minimum wage being proposed by Nigerian governments at different levels isn’t enough for the proper feeding of most families, how then will people be able to pay house rent when the cost has almost doubled in most cases?

From here one can see that an impending danger lies ahead, homelessness in Nigeria could increase and several people may chose to relocate to the rural areas where there are less infrastructure and other amenities, this can bring different dimensions of hardship on people who have been through a lot for some time now.

Can the Current Trend Result in a Accommodation Bubble

Two likely scenarios may play out given the current rising cost of accommodation in Nigeria. The first scenario would be a sustained high cost of accommodation while the second scenario would be the bursting of the real estate bubble and the crashing of accommodation costs. At this point, it is tough to tell what is going to happen exactly but either of the cases may be the reality in a few months.

Given the current rise of everything, it could seem that real estate too should follow the high cost of everything else, this could be a dangerous trajectory as it is sure to heighten homelessness in Nigeria; besides, most of the buildings were built years ago when the current price hike in everything hasn’t kicked in. If the accommodation cost has to rise with every other commodity, there’s bound to be consequences which could be miscalculations by landlords thereby leading to a pricing crash.

It does seem like no matter how the crash may play out, the difference may not get as low as earlier so the bubble may not burst just that the trend of the rise may have to slow at some point.

Factors that may impact accommodation demand and supply from January to July 2025

• Christmas Eve and New Year relocation: Christmas and New Year’s Eve usually signal one of the biggest mass migrations in Nigeria. several Nigerians living in the cities travel down to their hometowns. This usually follows relocation to such hometown or even relocation to new cities.

The Christmas Eve of 2024 and the January period of 2025 may see one of the biggest relocation realities in the history of the country. Unless however, the rising cost of accommodation in Nigeria crashes before then.

• Improved Salary: There’s still hope that something can be done so more families and individuals don’t have to experience homeless in Nigeria. It is possible that when the government increases workers’ salaries to a reasonable amount, families will be able to renew their rents and not be forced out of shelter because of financial lack.

We are hoping that there will be a major improvement before December 2025 so people don’t have to lose the roof over their heads or be forced to an undesirable relocation to rural areas or a poorer quality environment and housing.

conclusion

The current rising cost of accommodation in Nigeria could be a sustainable trend or it could also be a bubble. The most important thing is that people need to have access to shelter. Without the government taking proactive steps to improve workers’ wages and welfare, it could all get to a chaotic stage where the housing situation can get out of hand.

More homelessness in Nigeria could come with troubling implications. We hope the government and relevant stakeholders look into the issue critically.

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